In recent days, the market performance of Ethereum (ETH) has been quite weak, closely related to changes in investors' expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in September. The U.S. stock market has also shown a trend of preliminary decline, seemingly reacting in advance to possible policy changes.

According to the Federal Reserve's interest rate observer data, the probability forecast for a rate cut in September has dropped from around 90% to 71% over the past week. This significant change reflects a rapid shift in market sentiment. Meanwhile, Polymarket data also shows a similar downward trend, dropping to 61%. Considering that Polymarket data is typically regarded as quite accurate due to the involvement of real money betting, this change is noteworthy.

Currently, market participants generally hold a cautious attitude towards opening long positions in ETH. Investors' attention is mainly focused on the upcoming Jackson Hole annual meeting in the United States, particularly the speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Given that this meeting could have a significant impact on the direction of monetary policy, ETH price fluctuations are expected to intensify in the short term.

Analysts suggest that investors remain patient and closely monitor the upcoming policy signals. Whether Powell's speech leans hawkish (favoring tightening policies) or dovish (favoring easing policies) will be one of the key factors influencing the future direction of ETH.

In this uncertain market environment, investors should remain calm, carefully assess risks, and timely adjust their investment strategies based on the latest economic data and policy information.